Land use and demographics reflect the spatial patterns of the regional economy and are essential inputs to the OahuMPO regional travel demand forecasting model. The Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) supplies OahuMPO with both base-year and forecast-year land use and demographic data, summarized at the level of the traffic analysis zone. DPP’s current model produces forecasts based on aggregated zonal data, using the gravity model construct to capture the observed historical development trends. The development of the experimental land use simulation model based on UrbanSim is intended to explore the possibility of producing forecasts at the disaggregated level, capturing the locational behavior of the individual household and firm, in a construct that is consistent with economic theory. Part of this theory is the notion of accessibility between households and business, as represented by the regional transportation network, influencing the way land develops. The model will also make two improvements over the current method. The first is the ability to characterize more types of developments, such as resort areas, mixed-uses, and military installations, and the second is the use of smaller grid cells to more accurately capture land uses in exact locations.
Responsible Agency: OahuMPO
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